Soccer Match Outcome Probabilities
Queryable feed of model-derived win/draw/loss probabilities, expected goals, most-likely score, over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score for every fixture pairing. Filter by team or league. Refreshed daily.
Arilytics is an independent data science practice specializing in transparent, trustworthy modelling. We don't resell raw data — we build our own models on openly licensed sources and deliver them as API-ready insights, refreshed daily, with the method and assumptions documented so you can explain every number you publish. Our first product line is football analytics: match-outcome probabilities from a time-weighted Dixon-Coles model, and a recency-weighted team form index. Founded by a data scientist, writer, and instructor on data and AI.
| as_of_date | away_form_ppg | div | form_index | goals_against_avg | goals_for_avg | home_form_ppg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 3 | D1 | 89.8 | 1.4 | 3.54 | 2.44 |
| 2026-05-16 | 1.59 | D1 | 67.6 | 0.93 | 1.91 | 2.41 |
| 2026-05-16 | 1 | D1 | 59.9 | 1.93 | 1.97 | 3 |
Queryable feed of model-derived win/draw/loss probabilities, expected goals, most-likely score, over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score for every fixture pairing. Filter by team or league. Refreshed daily.
Queryable feed of recency-weighted 0–100 form ratings for every team, with home/away split and last-5 results. Filter by team or league. Refreshed daily.
Tell us what you're trying to answer and we'll pass it along.