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professional-soccerAnalytics

Soccer Match Outcome Probabilities

Professional-soccer analytics – data from joury.eu

Queryable feed of model-derived win/draw/loss probabilities, expected goals, most-likely score, over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score for every fixture pairing. Filter by team or league. Refreshed daily.

2 credits
joury.eu - Data Source

Data Source

joury.eu
Arilytics - Analytics Provider

Analytics Provider

Arilytics
<1.2s
80% success
professional-soccerAnalytics

Soccer Match Outcome Probabilities

Professional-soccer analytics – data from joury.eu

2 credits

Queryable feed of model-derived win/draw/loss probabilities, expected goals, most-likely score, over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score for every fixture pairing. Filter by team or league. Refreshed daily.

joury.eu
Data sourcejoury.eu
Response<1.2s
CoverageEurope
Success rate80%
Arilytics
ProviderArilytics
Soccer Match Outcome Probabilities

Bulk data endpoint — not a realtime API. Each pull queries the source live and can return thousands to millions of rows, so responses take seconds, not milliseconds, and arrive as a downloadable CSV with a JSON preview.

Input parameters

13 parameters

This insight accepts 13 parameters to customize your result.

TEX
div
Enter text…
TEX
home_team
Enter text…
away_team: prob_home_win: prob_draw: prob_away_win: exp_home_goals: exp_away_goals: most_likely_score: prob_most_likely: prob_over_2_5: prob_btts: updated_at:

About This Feed

Win/draw/loss probabilities from a time-weighted Dixon-Coles model (Poisson goals with the low-score correction, 180-day half-life) — model-derived, not copied bookmaker odds. Each row gives both sides' expected goals, the most-likely scoreline and its probability, P(over 2.5 goals), and P(both teams to score), for every home/away pairing in the leagues we cover. Filter by team or league to pull a single fixture or a whole division. Method and assumptions are documented so you can explain every number you publish. Data: football-data.co.uk. Model: Arilytics.

Who this is for

Data AnalystsBusinesses & AnalystsResearchers
Categoryprofessional-soccer
Data Sourcejoury.eu
CoverageEurope
Data PeriodFrom July 31, 2022
Updatesevery day

Data accuracy and methodology verified. Originally released July 21, 2026. Last updated July 22, 2026.

Tags

soccerfootballmatch-predictionwin-probabilityexpected-goalsdixon-colesscorelinebttsover-undermatch-previewfantasypremier-leaguela-ligaserie-abundesligaligue-1

How requests & billing work

1

Every request returns a single CSV file — no pagination. You get a preview and a download link in the response. Each request is capped at 2,500 rows for speed and safety.

2

You're charged 2 credits per request on 200 OK — not per row. One request = 2 credits, whether you get 10 rows or 2,500.

3

The only reason to request less data is relevance — use filters to scope results. Tighter filters = a smaller, faster file at the same cost.

4

Need rows in the response body instead of a file? Pass delivery: "inline" and rows come back directly in the response, subject to the same 2,500-row cap. Handy for live-UI integrations.

Example

A query returning the full 2,500 rows → 1 request → 2 credits, delivered as a single CSV. Filter to a subset → still 1 request → 2 credits, smaller file.

Code ExamplesSign in to get your key
Delivery:
Default · full result as a file, preview + download URL in response
🔑

API key required

Sign in to auto-populate your key and make live requests. The endpoint URL and code are real — only the key is gated.

Sign in →
https://api.spartera.com/endpoints/v1/soccer-match-outcome-probabilities
# Bulk export to GCS — full result delivered as a single file.
# This is the default; you don't need to pass a delivery flag.
# Response carries a preview + download_url; you GET that URL to grab the file.
curl -X POST "https://api.spartera.com/endpoints/v1/soccer-match-outcome-probabilities" \
  -H "X-API-Key: YOUR_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "format": "csv",
    "limit":  1000000
  }'

# Then pull the actual file (URL is public-read GCS — no auth needed):
# curl -O "<download_url from response.response.download_url>"

Response envelope: data.spartera (billing/file stats) · data.response.download_url (HTTPS link to file) · data.response.preview (first 50 rows)

Common Questions

Yes — Soccer Match Outcome Probabilities is built to answer exactly this. Queryable feed of model-derived win/draw/loss probabilities, expected goals, most-likely score, over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score for every fixture pairing. Filter by team or league. Refreshed daily. Data comes from joury.eu and is delivered on-demand through Spartera.

Yes — Soccer Match Outcome Probabilities is built to answer exactly this. Queryable feed of model-derived win/draw/loss probabilities, expected goals, most-likely score, over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score for every fixture pairing. Filter by team or league. Refreshed daily. Data comes from joury.eu and is delivered on-demand through Spartera.

Yes — Soccer Match Outcome Probabilities is built to answer exactly this. Queryable feed of model-derived win/draw/loss probabilities, expected goals, most-likely score, over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score for every fixture pairing. Filter by team or league. Refreshed daily. Data comes from joury.eu and is delivered on-demand through Spartera.

Queryable feed of model-derived win/draw/loss probabilities, expected goals, most-likely score, over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score for every fixture pairing. Filter by team or league. Refreshed daily.

Each pull costs 2 credits (from $1.00), billed only on a successful 200 OK. You're charged once per request — whether the file holds 10 rows or 100,000 — not per row.

The data is pulled live from joury.eu at request time and delivered by Arilytics. Each request queries the source directly rather than returning a cached snapshot.

Sign up for a free Spartera account, add credits, then call the endpoint from the marketplace or directly over REST with your API key. Each request returns a downloadable CSV plus a JSON preview and a download URL in the response.

The underlying source refreshes every day. Because each pull queries the source live, you receive the latest available rows at the moment you make the request.

Each request returns the full result as a downloadable CSV file, with a JSON preview and a download URL in the response. If you'd rather receive rows directly in the API response body, pass delivery: "inline".

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Price

2 credits

2 credits · from $1.00 per request*

— or —
GDPR-compliant · *Billed on 200 OK only

Why sign up?

  • Pull this and 18,000+ other analytical products on-demand
  • Flexible credit packages from $0.50/credit
  • Download results as CSV, share, and set alerts
  • Call directly via REST API with your own key
  • GDPR-compliant · billed only on a successful 200 OK
Response Schema — per data row
divtext
home_teamtext
away_teamtext
prob_home_winreal
prob_drawreal
prob_away_winreal
exp_home_goalsreal
exp_away_goalsreal
most_likely_scoretext
prob_most_likelyreal
prob_over_2_5real
prob_bttsreal
updated_attext
—
rate limit
80%
Success rate
1.2 s
Avg latency
Refresh Frequency
Daily
Refreshes every day
Last refresh ~23 hours ago

Refresh Frequency

Daily
Refreshes every day
Last refresh: ~23 hours ago
(estimated)

Region

Europe

Parameters

13enabled · all optional

Sources

  • Show sources information

    Data for the following insight was sourced from the following:

    joury.eujoury.eu
    Visit Provider
  • Show publisher information
    joury.eujoury.eu
    Visit Publisher
  • How to Cite
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Details

PublishedJul 21, 2026
Last updatedJul 22, 2026
Data typeTime-series rows
FormatJSON preview + CSV
Response timeSeconds (bulk)
Vol. per session2,500+ rows
PricingPer pull (200 OK)