When a starter comes back from injury, how much of his normal production should you expect over his first four games? This product shows a projected path for every injured starter who hasn’t returned yet, and it refreshes weekly.
For each player, the chart shows:
- A projected line across games 1 to 4 after he returns, as a percent of his own baseline (the average of his six games before the injury). 100% means fully back to normal.
- A low–high band covering the middle half of similar past returners. About 25% came back below the low line and about 25% came back above the high line. It is a realistic range, not a guarantee.
- A typical line for similar players, so you can see whether his projection sits above or below the usual return.
The table also gives the real numbers behind the percentages. For example, Lamar Jackson’s baseline is 16.7 PPR points per game. He is projected at 87%, or about 14.6 points per game over his first four games back, with a range of 8.3 to 19.8.
How to read it: if the line reaches 80% by game 4, we’d expect about 80% of his usual production over his first four games back. Early games are usually lower, because production tends to build as a player gets back up to speed.
Know who you’re looking for? Pick the player. Position, team and injury are only needed to narrow down a list.
Production is measured in PPR fantasy points for QB, RB, WR and TE, pressures for DL and LB, and coverage targets faced for DB. Offensive line isn’t covered, because there’s no production measure for it. Defensive linemen and linebackers show wider ranges because pressures and tackles are small counts, so one extra play moves the percentage a lot.
How it’s built: the projection comes from how similar players performed after returning from similar injuries, matched on position, injury type and games missed. The game-by-game line takes the usual build-up pattern for that group and scales it to the player’s own 4-game projection. It shows the likely shape of the return, not a separate forecast for each game.