When the starting QB is out, does the line move enough?
Since 2016, backup QB starts have covered just 45.2% of the time (331-401-18), scoring 18.8 points a game against 23.5 with the usual starter. The market adjusts, but not all the way.
Pick a team and a time period to see how each QB situation has done:
• Cover % and ATS record against the closing spread
• Average margin vs the spread
• Points vs the implied team total
• Passing yards and attempts per game
• Over % on the game total
Backup starts are split by why the backup started:
• Starter injured – the usual starter was on the injury report or injured reserve
• Starter benched or relieved – the usual starter was active and played but didn't start, or was pulled
• Other reason – rest, suspension, trade or release
The "usual starter" is the QB who started the most games for that team that season. Regular season only, final week excluded (starters often rest). Pushes don't count toward Cover %.
Choose a Team (or All Teams) and a Period to see the full picture.