How did a specific NFL starter look after he came back from an injury, compared with his own level before it, and compared with a typical return?
Pick a player, an injury and a season. The chart shows his games after the return, one point per game, as a running average of his production and snap share against his own average from the 6 games before the injury.
How to read it:
- Solid lines are the player. The dashed lines are the typical return for starters at the same position who missed a similar number of games.
- 100% means he’s back to his own usual level. 85% means he’s producing 15% less than before. Healthy players typically level off around 90 to 95%.
- Values well above 100% usually mean his pre-injury stretch was unusually quiet, so his normal level was low.
- The line stops where his run of games stops: the season ended, or he was hurt again.
- Production is PPR fantasy points for QB, RB, WR and TE, pressures for DL and LB, and coverage targets faced for DB. Snap share is the share of his team’s snaps he played.
Good to know:
- Snap share below his usual level can reflect the team easing him back, a teammate who took over the role, or a coaching or scheme change. The chart measures the change, not the cause.
- The typical line covers the first 4 games back. It’s a comparison group, not a forecast.
- Only starters are included, and only returns that happened. If a player has the same injury twice in one season, each return shows as its own season option (for example, “2024 (1st of 2, back Week 4)”).
- Defensive production starts in 2018. The data runs from 2016 through the current season.
For how all starters tend to come back, see “What a Healthy Return Looks Like: First 4 Games Back vs. Own Baseline.” For the odds a player returns at all, see “What Happens After a Starter Gets Hurt.”