This product estimates the probability that every player listed on a team’s NFL injury report will play on game day. Pick a team to see all of its listed players, ranked from most to least likely to play.

How it works. Each estimate comes from how similar players have actually fared in past seasons. The model looks at three things together: how the player practiced over the week (full, limited or did not practice, and in what order), his game designation, and the history of players at the same position, with the same injury and on the same team. Recent seasons count more than older ones, and the model pulls small samples back toward the league-wide pattern so a handful of cases can’t swing a number.

Rules that override the model. A player listed Out is 0%. A player with no designation on the final report is 100%. Players still waiting on a designation get a practice-pattern estimate that updates as reports come in.

Reading the columns. Probability_Method shows what the number is built on, such as designation plus practice pattern, or practice pattern only while the designation is pending. Data_Confidence shows how much history sits behind that player’s number. Treat “Low” as closer to a league average than a player-specific read.

When it updates. The table refreshes after each weekly injury report upload. The chart shows the current week only.

Good for: fantasy lineup decisions, DFS pivots, and anyone who wants to see which players on a team are real risks to sit.

This is a probability estimate, not a guarantee. Always check team news close to kickoff.

Methodology developed and reviewed by Dr. Kyle Trimble PT, DPT