Most people read the practice report one way: Limited all week means he’s probably playing. But what happened last week changes the odds a lot. A player who played through a Questionable tag last week and opens with a DNP plays far more often than the standard read suggests. A player coming off two missed games who is Limited all week plays far less. Even last week’s tag matters: a player who missed as Questionable and goes DNP / Limited / Limited plays 70% of the time, but after missing as Doubtful it’s just 42%.
Pick a team to see every player whose chance to play moved because of last week. Each player gets two bars: his chance once last week is counted, and what his practice report alone suggests. The gap is your edge. Big drops flag players the market may be overrating, and big jumps flag players it may be writing off too early.
Built from every NFL injury report since 2016, bye weeks excluded. Tested on the 2025 season: counting last week cut prediction error by 8% overall, and by about 25% for players returning from an Out. Updates nightly as practice reports come in.
Methodology developed and reviewed by Dr. Kyle Trimble PT, DPT