# Soccer Match Outcome Probabilities

> Queryable feed of model-derived win/draw/loss probabilities, expected goals, most-likely score, over-2.5 and both-teams-to-score for every fixture pairing. Filter by team or league. Refreshed daily.

## At a glance

- **Publisher:** Arilytics
- **Data source:** joury.eu
- **Category:** professional-soccer
- **Price:** 2 credits (about $1.00 per request, billed on a successful response)
- **Refresh:** Daily
- **Coverage:** Europe
- **Time period:** 2022-07-31 to present
- **Type:** API endpoint (bulk pull)
- **URL:** https://marketplace.spartera.com/products/soccer-match-outcome-probabilities/0131401c-3423-484f-8dda-37e58bfef514

## Description

Win/draw/loss probabilities from a time-weighted Dixon-Coles model (Poisson goals with the low-score correction, 180-day half-life) — model-derived, not copied bookmaker odds. Each row gives both sides' expected goals, the most-likely scoreline and its probability, P(over 2.5 goals), and P(both teams to score), for every home/away pairing in the leagues we cover. Filter by team or league to pull a single fixture or a whole division. Method and assumptions are documented so you can explain every number you publish. Data: football-data.co.uk. Model: Arilytics.

## Fields

| Field | Type | Required |
| --- | --- | --- |
| div | text |  |
| home_team | text |  |
| away_team | text |  |
| prob_home_win | real |  |
| prob_draw | real |  |
| prob_away_win | real |  |
| exp_home_goals | real |  |
| exp_away_goals | real |  |
| most_likely_score | text |  |
| prob_most_likely | real |  |
| prob_over_2_5 | real |  |
| prob_btts | real |  |
| updated_at | text |  |

## Access

```bash
curl -X POST "https://arilytics.api.spartera.com/endpoints/v1/soccer-match-outcome-probabilities" \
  -H "X-API-Key: YOUR_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"format": "csv"}'
```

Each request is billed 2 credits on a successful response, regardless of row count. Results are returned as a downloadable CSV with a JSON preview.

## Machine-readable

- Sample data (JSON): https://marketplace.spartera.com/sample/0131401c-3423-484f-8dda-37e58bfef514
- Full page (HTML, with schema.org Dataset markup): https://marketplace.spartera.com/products/soccer-match-outcome-probabilities/0131401c-3423-484f-8dda-37e58bfef514
- Catalog index: https://marketplace.spartera.com/llms.txt
- Product sitemap: https://marketplace.spartera.com/server-sitemap.xml

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Published by Arilytics on the Spartera Analytics Marketplace. Licensed under https://marketplace.spartera.com/terms.